2023 Preseason Win Total Projections

2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022

Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2023 PFEI Preseason Ratings

RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
1Georgia1.5411.51.596.332.067.003.002--------
2Alabama1.4410.92.296.403.222.064.014.001-------
3Ohio State1.3510.83.247.390.261.090.010.002-------
4Michigan1.0710.24.094.306.365.181.044.009.001------
5LSU.939.113.021.126.240.277.208.094.027.006.001----
6Texas.878.817.006.070.217.305.241.112.041.008-----
7Penn State.859.37.024.128.318.299.162.059.010------
8Tennessee.858.816.005.067.207.324.277.099.016.004.001----
9Clemson.8310.05.091.282.326.189.087.020.005------
10Utah.809.38.035.142.299.251.183.076.012.002-----
11Kansas State.728.619.016.069.196.254.251.145.054.011.003.001---
12Oregon.699.211.031.115.256.312.192.068.023.003-----
13Oklahoma.678.618.011.062.194.285.228.142.054.019.005----
14TCU.678.324.006.049.173.250.259.153.086.019.005----
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
15Notre Dame.648.422.008.049.177.260.254.161.058.028.005----
16Mississippi State.597.931.002.022.098.204.308.214.119.029.004----
17Washington.598.520.011.074.154.252.250.149.066.040.004----
18Florida.566.950-.006.024.114.193.280.228.110.039.005.001--
19Minnesota.547.639-.011.059.187.280.238.157.049.016.003---
20Florida State.548.327.011.041.159.239.293.176.069.009.003----
21Iowa.548.423.010.062.159.261.265.161.062.018.002----
22Wisconsin.538.128.003.033.134.262.270.191.076.029.002----
23Ole Miss.516.953-.001.018.085.219.297.250.110.019.001---
24Auburn.497.048-.001.017.100.217.308.227.103.025.002---
25USC.488.326.001.035.152.241.294.189.068.017.002.001---
26Texas A&M.456.949-.001.025.098.204.283.235.114.030.010---
27Iowa State.436.563.002.007.020.081.167.228.226.167.082.018.002--
28Baylor.426.855-.003.038.097.189.271.207.129.052.014---
29Oklahoma State.417.638.001.017.072.184.261.225.162.048.029.001---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
30Kentucky.376.465-.001.008.041.162.279.274.169.059.007---
31Oregon State.367.832.002.028.079.211.269.210.148.041.012----
32Texas Tech.356.562-.005.027.069.159.255.245.139.074.023.002.002-
33UCF.346.856.001.008.021.082.190.299.219.133.035.010.001.001-
34Missouri.326.074-.002.006.033.106.187.292.212.115.042.005--
35Cincinnati.327.047.001.009.057.134.191.264.188.103.037.015.001--
36Wake Forest.307.441-.012.073.179.252.237.159.065.019.003.001--
37South Carolina.295.978--.006.031.111.205.266.208.138.030.005--
38Tulane.289.210.030.125.267.277.190.083.025.003-----
39Illinois.286.857-.002.035.083.197.242.228.131.061.014.005.002-
40UCLA.287.833.001.016.095.185.289.212.134.052.015.001---
41Washington State.287.540.001.022.049.187.254.249.148.070.018.002---
42Arkansas.276.073-.001.006.028.115.223.278.224.092.031.002--
43Pittsburgh.266.954-.003.032.088.201.251.214.144.048.018-.001-
44Louisville.257.835.010.022.091.208.276.193.136.049.014.001---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
45Air Force.239.66.041.190.309.257.145.041.011.006-----
46James Madison.209.29.032.162.258.273.158.085.026.005.001----
47Boise State.198.029.005.031.116.230.268.220.094.032.003-.001--
48Maryland.186.659-.001.013.073.199.258.250.144.055.006.001--
49Purdue.185.489--.003.017.076.137.232.233.177.087.034.004-
50Fresno State.168.915.025.081.250.285.207.107.035.009.001----
51Michigan State.155.584--.002.012.052.181.268.270.146.062.006.001-
52NC State.146.952.001-.045.097.198.248.220.126.058.006.001--
53Memphis.148.421.005.069.157.264.206.181.092.023.003----
54West Virginia.144.9100---.014.040.107.185.257.223.128.039.007-
55North Carolina.136.464-.003.022.079.165.228.229.163.072.035.002.002-
56BYU.115.392--.002.015.049.124.232.269.196.087.026--
57Duke.106.172--.007.045.112.231.273.194.100.034.003.001-
58Syracuse.096.660-.004.027.092.180.245.243.132.059.015.003--
59SMU.097.930-.012.107.227.284.213.120.034.002.001---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
60Houston.085.391--.004.010.052.155.236.264.172.086.018.003-
61Appalachian State.068.325.008.042.170.252.265.161.070.020.012----
62Western Kentucky-.019.212.002.105.294.322.187.071.016.003-----
63Kansas-.024.5113--.001.001.016.073.151.261.269.154.061.012.001
64Indiana-.024.8106---.001.021.077.196.308.242.128.025.002-
65Nebraska-.035.393---.010.053.141.231.259.192.084.026.004-
66California-.064.5114---.003.019.071.154.240.261.178.066.007.001
67Arizona State-.074.9104---.004.029.099.208.257.232.114.051.006-
68Miami-.095.781-.001.005.021.086.190.251.219.162.050.013.002-
69Navy-.106.951-.006.030.100.206.263.216.129.035.015---
70Troy-.117.242.002.009.055.126.237.263.181.086.035.003.003--
71Marshall-.117.144.002.011.054.134.211.222.213.100.042.011---
72Virginia-.125.490--.001.019.067.157.213.246.188.082.025.001.001
73East Carolina-.136.466-.002.016.055.137.250.262.168.075.031.004--
74Louisiana-.137.736.002.017.086.214.251.226.139.050.013.002---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
75Army-.147.046.001.001.042.098.233.275.206.111.030.001.002--
76Northwestern-.184.5112---.003.017.062.151.266.276.149.066.010-
77Stanford-.184.8107--.001.003.023.087.188.270.239.137.046.006-
78Ohio-.197.834.001.035.097.192.249.245.118.050.011.002---
79Vanderbilt-.203.9119----.003.026.074.183.324.274.107.009-
80UTSA-.206.367--.015.065.138.247.237.184.088.020.004.002-
81UAB-.225.976--.011.031.116.215.258.200.116.044.008.001-
82Arizona-.224.5115---.003.010.049.147.267.286.170.064.003.001
83Virginia Tech-.234.6110--.001.006.024.078.162.259.210.172.071.017-
84San Diego State-.246.171--.008.052.134.208.233.216.118.026.005--
85Tulsa-.246.169--.005.030.135.269.247.195.090.025.004--
86Buffalo-.257.145-.004.036.137.216.246.201.106.040.013.001--
87Liberty-.269.014.015.102.258.289.204.098.028.005.001----
88Toledo-.277.737.003.027.066.205.231.241.153.057.014.003---
89Boston College-.285.682--.004.019.082.175.243.241.168.059.008.001-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
90Florida Atlantic-.286.075-.002.009.031.109.207.252.208.133.036.012.001-
91Georgia Tech-.304.2116---.001.008.040.114.253.283.214.075.012-
92Georgia Southern-.326.268-.002.012.051.140.245.241.182.096.027.004--
93Wyoming-.325.879--.005.016.082.195.264.247.151.037.002.001-
94South Alabama-.335.977--.007.035.102.222.258.211.131.027.006.001-
95San Jose State-.335.683-.001.002.023.073.166.239.235.176.063.018.003.001
96Coastal Carolina-.366.170-.001.004.030.114.229.281.198.105.035.003--
97Miami (OH)-.396.758-.004.018.083.186.252.241.136.060.017.002.001-
98Eastern Michigan-.417.143-.002.037.126.251.278.177.100.025.004---
99Georgia State-.415.585---.015.053.158.266.254.164.075.013.001.001
100Utah State-.425.488-.001.005.009.054.142.254.279.165.068.020.003-
101North Texas-.435.394--.003.013.046.145.241.243.171.107.025.006-
102Rutgers-.463.1129-----.004.023.106.223.331.227.081.005
103Kent State-.485.586---.012.063.163.239.265.170.071.015.002-
104Southern Mississippi-.484.9103--.001.003.023.079.203.272.247.134.032.006-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
105Temple-.495.295--.003.012.058.139.214.241.188.112.028.005-
106Middle Tennessee-.516.661--.008.065.187.273.242.148.054.020.002.001-
107Ball State-.525.487-.001.004.023.071.154.229.223.186.076.028.005-
108Western Michigan-.544.8105---.005.020.088.196.276.236.121.046.010.002
109Central Michigan-.564.9101---.006.036.100.206.273.211.115.046.007-
110Arkansas State-.614.9102---.008.029.105.190.253.248.126.037.004-
111Colorado-.642.0132-----.001.002.021.088.243.324.261.060
112Northern Illinois-.645.098--.002.011.060.124.202.221.213.118.040.008.001
113Nevada-.645.196--.001.005.049.129.230.260.202.084.034.006-
114UNLV-.655.099---.005.033.105.216.287.197.111.036.010-
115South Florida-.654.6111---.002.012.066.159.258.271.160.059.013-
116Louisiana Tech-.675.880--.004.026.091.192.269.228.118.060.010.001.001
117Colorado State-.704.2117---.003.018.054.122.217.262.196.098.027.003
118UL Monroe-.703.6125----.004.019.076.177.278.249.151.039.007
119Old Dominion-.723.3128----.001.004.040.129.213.313.217.071.012
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
120Hawaii-.774.7109--.002.003.031.075.169.237.255.149.060.017.002
121Texas State-.793.8120----.004.042.087.187.268.241.136.033.002
122Rice-.823.5126----.002.011.044.139.251.295.196.056.006
123UTEP-.894.7108---.009.023.074.177.253.248.159.047.010-
124Bowling Green-.893.4127----.002.013.033.159.243.284.185.073.008
125Connecticut-.943.7123---.001.001.020.065.147.299.281.139.045.002
126Charlotte-.972.5131-----.001.008.036.166.276.310.167.036
127New Mexico-.993.8121----.002.021.084.182.279.240.145.044.003
128Akron-1.003.0130----.001.007.025.094.204.300.218.131.020
130Jacksonville State-1.003.9118----.006.030.098.210.236.247.137.033.003
129Sam Houston-1.003.7124-----.013.072.191.295.259.143.023.004
131New Mexico State-1.025.197---.013.040.108.200.256.232.112.031.008-
132Florida International-1.083.8122----.002.027.087.183.250.250.152.045.004
133Massachusetts-1.441.9133------.002.013.054.172.339.321.099