2022 Preseason Win Total Projections

2025 :: 2024 :: 2023 :: 2022

Win total projections are calculated from individual game projections based on preseason team ratings (PFEI) and represent the range of outcomes that each team should expect to have against its set of regular season opponents (including games against FCS opponents), assuming that team and opponent ratings remain stable for the duration of the season. Mean wins (MW) are equal to the sum of projected individual game win likelihoods. See also: 2022 PFEI Preseason Ratings

RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
1Georgia1.6011.61.715.242.039.004---------
2Alabama1.4411.22.422.386.149.039.004--------
3Ohio State1.3110.83.272.408.223.084.013--------
4Michigan.9010.05.043.273.361.230.080.010.003------
5Clemson.8310.04.091.259.346.202.080.019.003------
6Notre Dame.829.67.036.205.336.259.121.035.007.001-----
7Oklahoma.819.214.030.137.259.259.189.091.029.006-----
8Wisconsin.799.311.017.120.270.318.181.072.018.003.001----
9Oklahoma State.799.116.023.123.266.286.182.093.023.003.001----
10Auburn.717.738-.009.066.194.294.256.129.041.010.001---
11Utah.709.49.051.175.300.247.164.049.012.002-----
12Penn State.678.520.005.055.172.278.268.151.063.008-----
13Texas A&M.667.931.002.028.108.206.273.201.136.035.011----
14Iowa State.658.324.006.047.149.265.281.149.077.023.003----
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
15Baylor.598.028.002.037.121.211.284.202.105.029.009----
16LSU.587.546-.013.071.163.231.256.186.063.015.002---
17Kansas State.557.933-.025.094.219.262.231.120.035.014----
18Iowa.557.544-.010.056.177.270.252.143.073.014.004.001--
19Ole Miss.537.737-.021.087.170.270.262.127.055.007.001---
20Cincinnati.529.86.085.250.299.224.104.029.009------
21Florida.507.547-.013.051.177.274.261.163.052.008.001---
22Kentucky.498.029-.022.089.224.311.231.100.020.003----
23Texas.487.055-.003.036.109.219.276.189.114.047.006.001--
24Oregon.467.735-.016.088.213.274.224.121.053.009.001.001--
25Minnesota.437.930.001.016.091.222.275.222.130.035.007.001---
26Mississippi State.406.273-.001.003.034.125.236.276.207.101.017---
27Boise State.409.212.021.152.254.272.189.087.021.004-----
28Purdue.407.736.001.026.072.191.291.199.137.067.016----
29Michigan State.386.959-.002.027.121.230.282.213.096.026.002.001--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
30Wake Forest.388.423.013.053.166.245.244.170.078.028.003----
31Tennessee.376.957--.017.090.211.292.252.106.030.002---
32Air Force.359.213.029.122.248.274.212.087.022.004.002----
33Pittsburgh.358.422.006.060.180.240.228.176.076.025.007-.002--
34NC State.327.932.004.021.122.206.252.213.116.053.012.001---
35UCLA.318.227.002.032.143.244.282.180.090.021.006----
36Washington.307.834.003.026.098.198.267.234.125.040.007.002---
37UCF.308.918.031.105.217.271.218.100.043.009.004.002---
38Arizona State.297.350.001.011.067.143.234.246.185.084.023.004.002--
39Arkansas.295.784--.003.026.094.177.244.236.148.064.006.002-
40Nebraska.276.862.001.002.029.095.193.276.228.126.036.013.001--
41Appalachian State.269.58.031.154.322.305.138.041.007.002-----
42Miami.237.545.003.013.059.144.255.273.179.054.017.003---
43Washington State.236.860.002.006.031.108.182.249.223.120.069.008.002--
44Texas Tech.205.687-.001.001.019.078.162.250.247.161.069.012--
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
45BYU.206.764-.004.023.079.186.266.223.140.057.022---
46Florida State.186.270-.002.018.045.131.220.271.185.087.033.007.001-
47Houston.178.521.008.064.179.262.255.154.057.016.005----
48Army.169.115.016.095.282.295.200.088.024------
49West Virginia.155.292--.003.015.047.121.242.261.176.110.022.003-
50Fresno State.138.619.007.076.195.293.227.140.048.010.004----
51Louisville.125.979--.005.039.113.212.239.213.124.040.012.003-
52Virginia.127.640.004.022.083.184.265.196.156.068.018.002.002--
53North Carolina.116.269-.006.020.050.139.214.250.193.089.028.011--
54TCU.105.293-.001.003.007.058.127.221.256.187.103.031.006-
55South Carolina.095.685--.002.011.068.161.291.283.135.042.007--
56San Diego State.087.641.003.018.072.177.249.288.127.052.012.002---
57Virginia Tech.076.956-.008.046.111.188.257.199.128.049.011.003--
58California.076.468-.004.016.060.152.239.250.165.086.025.003--
59USC.075.977-.002.010.041.120.175.244.240.114.040.011.003-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
60Louisiana.069.310.026.171.277.275.159.072.015.004.001----
61SMU.056.958.001.007.046.113.200.250.198.118.049.013.005--
62Missouri.045.588--.003.006.067.139.292.284.160.047.002--
63Utah State.027.448-.003.044.147.238.293.193.064.016.002---
64Western Kentucky.029.117.038.121.223.264.208.102.026.013.003----
65Memphis.027.449.002.014.056.153.249.242.183.079.017.004.001--
66Oregon State-.025.294--.001.015.051.124.223.243.198.105.034.006-
67Stanford-.024.6100--.001.010.023.064.181.260.240.148.064.009-
68Marshall-.028.226.001.033.147.258.259.190.087.023.002----
69Boston College-.055.880-.002.005.023.090.199.286.243.114.034.004--
70Nevada-.077.153.001.007.034.123.216.279.222.085.028.005---
71Liberty-.078.325.005.047.138.264.306.180.050.009.001----
72Syracuse-.084.999--.001.007.031.089.183.318.224.119.026.002-
73Illinois-.094.5102--.002.002.017.074.142.260.259.178.053.013-
74UAB-.117.643-.020.083.184.247.234.155.055.017.005---
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
75Tulsa-.126.271-.002.011.046.127.216.250.209.098.032.009--
76Coastal Carolina-.137.739.002.021.086.206.261.239.126.048.011----
77Indiana-.144.2105----.015.043.139.243.279.176.092.012.001
78Maryland-.144.6101---.002.019.071.180.264.253.144.053.014-
79Toledo-.157.642-.011.068.188.283.255.138.048.007.002---
80Navy-.155.098--.001.009.032.096.209.256.234.112.046.005-
81Wyoming-.166.175-.001.009.044.133.199.249.220.104.036.005--
82Colorado-.173.6116---.001.007.030.098.168.242.221.163.059.011
83Tulane-.196.076--.002.037.099.202.300.217.106.032.005--
84Western Michigan-.207.054-.008.039.104.211.272.195.106.049.016---
85Miami (OH)-.237.251.002.003.040.152.244.265.176.089.024.005---
86UTSA-.236.863.001.004.027.081.212.259.211.141.053.007.004--
87East Carolina-.265.589--.001.024.061.173.229.257.162.070.020.003-
88Florida Atlantic-.267.252-.012.039.131.241.264.179.094.029.010.001--
89Georgia Tech-.273.5120-----.015.067.155.260.270.175.055.003
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
90Northwestern-.283.7115----.002.009.070.191.269.263.153.040.003
91Central Michigan-.326.566-.001.014.069.184.240.251.153.060.026.002--
92Colorado State-.335.195--.001.007.040.124.222.284.201.091.029.001-
93Arizona-.363.3121---.001.002.015.049.132.237.280.195.081.008
94Eastern Michigan-.366.861-.002.035.096.181.273.224.132.045.010.002--
95Georgia State-.375.881-.001.002.029.094.200.240.233.129.059.010.003-
96Middle Tennessee-.416.467-.001.018.045.133.247.257.171.089.029.010--
97Northern Illinois-.415.978--.009.039.109.208.249.209.126.037.014--
98Hawaii-.435.686.001-.005.034.076.176.219.251.167.057.013.001-
99Rutgers-.443.0124----.001.002.022.095.212.329.256.078.005
100South Florida-.453.8112----.003.032.082.174.276.245.141.045.002
101Buffalo-.456.765-.003.019.091.178.243.246.147.055.015.002.001-
102Louisiana Tech-.476.272--.008.049.127.232.235.209.097.037.006--
103Ball State-.485.882-.001.011.030.082.216.254.231.117.047.008.003-
104Troy-.495.097---.004.031.117.231.281.204.097.027.008-
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
105Georgia Southern-.495.196--.002.012.046.112.245.262.184.102.032.003-
106Duke-.514.0110----.008.029.110.191.269.255.108.025.005
107Vanderbilt-.512.6127------.005.046.139.296.337.154.023
108North Texas-.515.783--.005.029.072.179.272.234.137.052.016.004-
109Ohio-.545.490--.002.012.064.156.237.257.195.059.015.003-
110San Jose State-.584.3103---.003.017.055.121.241.279.198.067.019-
111Arkansas State-.596.174--.008.036.119.229.274.179.106.039.009.001-
112UNLV-.623.8113---.001.004.026.093.180.285.244.134.032.001
113South Alabama-.635.491--.006.014.065.140.241.250.174.084.024.002-
114UL Monroe-.654.2108--.001.001.003.037.120.222.277.220.095.021.003
115Kansas-.671.9129-------.004.035.181.436.293.051
116Old Dominion-.683.6117----.004.015.084.152.267.272.134.065.007
117Kent State-.714.3104----.006.045.144.259.286.183.066.011-
118Southern Mississippi-.734.1109---.002.007.038.111.222.277.212.104.026.001
119Temple-.793.6118----.001.010.053.153.259.305.180.035.004
RkTeamPFEIMWRk12W11W10W9W8W7W6W5W4W3W2W1W0W
120Texas State-.834.2106---.001.011.036.126.243.270.204.084.023.002
121UTEP-.834.2107---.001.007.048.134.250.240.191.092.030.007
122Charlotte-.883.8114---.001.001.027.068.177.263.262.145.046.010
123Rice-.903.2122----.002.005.027.107.230.314.227.078.010
124New Mexico-.912.8125-----.002.014.076.190.298.295.113.012
125Bowling Green-.983.1123----.001.004.025.104.219.296.244.089.018
126James Madison-1.002.7126----.001.002.007.052.168.305.308.138.019
127Florida International-1.024.0111----.006.039.101.194.278.217.123.040.002
128New Mexico State-1.043.5119----.003.012.062.172.270.258.168.049.006
129Connecticut-1.232.0128-------.010.064.237.416.218.055
130Akron-1.321.8130-------.003.044.156.339.358.100
131Massachusetts-1.441.7131-------.010.045.164.353.318.110